Adventure League - BINGO! *New Feature*

[KevinW07]

I believe your success with completing battles for bingo is dependent upon your position in your group as well as how active it is. Two weeks ago, I was at the top of my group in Silver for several days in a row. There were several thousand points between me and second place, and there was not much activity going on in my group in general. The people immediately below me would go almost an entire day without putting on any points. I was unable to complete any battle tasks, as I was constantly losing despite using dragons that were supposed to have >75% chance of winning. This leaves you in a situation where you wonder if you should spend gold or not because the people below you will catch up if you go long enough without gaining any points.

I find I have a higher success rate with battling when I'm at the bottom of my group. Another situation where I have a high success rate is if I'm at the top, and the people immediately below are quickly closing in on me. Again, the reason is to get people to hand over their gold. While it won't be you spending the gold this time, your competitors will be tempted to spend gold for that final push to overtake you.

Thanks Limequat. Great observations. Yes, I've experienced this as well, when there are others ahead of me, I easily win my battles even with lower percentage dragons. I did what I did as an experiment to see what would happen with the battling as the task was not critical towards my maximum Bingo points. I have spent the last 3 weeks that I was playing Bingo consistently either first or second on the Leaderboard (i.e. Gold, default to drop down a league, Silver, Gold League), and this is what I have experienced; so to help others. During this time, I've had plenty of battling tasks, definitely more than 10. Each time, I used a dragon with 75% or greater chance of winning (as I have plenty of high-level dragons at level 189). In fact, at the moment, TL decided to start a 22 round tournament (no doubt to spur people to spend more gold as it currently costs 30 gold to Ultimate out rather than the normal 12) which I thought might be an advantage; but alas it is somewhat not - i.e. please refer to my comments 2 paragraphs below after my side comment paragraph.

As a BIG aside, because I want to collect my last 50 tickets, I decided to forego the tournament and save my battles for a greater chance of winning against the low-level dragons in the early rounds of the tournament; and for us more experienced players, who really cares about earning a ho-hum triple color super rare (or even worse, only a rare one a few tournaments back; it has been ages since a Champion dragon was the tournament prize; at the moment, I'm only playing the tournaments to quickly advance if trying to earn items for the monthly battle arena dragon or if it is in the way of another event that I might be playing, i.e. Tales). I know it has been said in this forum plenty of times by others, but I'll say it again as feedback to TeamLava: having multiple events on at the same time week after week serves to really ANNOY your loyal players. With this and your gold traps that have never been fixed, this is the reason that many players refuse to spend money on buying gold. Many of my neighbors have told me this. Please take a lesson from this if you want your company to grow. Do not upset your customer base like this! Take a lesson from your last Leaderboard event where I applaud you for making the 10 milestones achievable for the average player without having to spend gold. In my group, I observed many people spending gold to actually win the Grand Prize dragon even well beyond the 10th milestone whereas in others, there was a distinct lack of interest, and I did so myself. Give a little to get more back!

Anyway, getting back on topic, let's just call it 10 times at the top of the league where I started a battling task. Each time, I used a 75% or greater dragon and always lost the first battle. In fact, in the last 3 battle tasks, with the tournament going against levels 1 to 6 dragons, I lost using dragons with 90% chance of winning; and then generally I won easily in the next round. I also observed each time (as a veteran of the Battle Arena), for the lost rounds, the damages dealt each time for each 3 blows were exactly the same! It would be a brave person to tell me that this is not rigged!

Anyway, to be helpful to others, I have gotten around this issue by calculating ahead of time that you will always lose the first battle, so just make sure you have another high-level dragon (or use a lower level one for the first), then if playing on iOS, use the free gift to watch a video or use 4 gold to advance immediately to re-battle).

Hope everyone can use the notes and advice. Good luck.

Note: Please see my reply below to katali119 regarding percentages and statistics.

[KevinW07]

The thing is, a 25% chance of losing is a pretty big chance. If it was a 25% chance of winning the lottery, I bet you'd be buying a ticket. I certainly would. I've been playing Ludo with my son and husband recently. Logically, every time rolling the dice has a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6. But that doesn't mean every 6 throws it comes up 6. In one game, my husband rolled 6 nearly every other go. In 2 games, my husband and I had rolled no less than 8 6s each before our son rolled his second. Chance is not even and regular, it just means that over time and thousands of battles, that's what it works out as. If you flip a coin 100 times, it's highly unlikely that you will get heads 50 times, and tails 50 times. If you do it 1 million times, it will be much closer to 500,000 each. If you do it 1 billion times, it will maybe be pretty much half and half. You need a lot of results to get a statistically accurate model.

Actually, in Limequat's situation (which is simiiar to mine), it can be statistically proven using the Bernouilli Process that the battles are rigged. It is different from rolling dices as each battle only has an outcome of win or loss (as opposed to 6 outcomes).

So, in Limequat's case, the chances of winning a battle when using a dragon with a 75% probability of winning actually increases with each battle attempt (i.e. 25% chance of losing in the first attempt, then 0.25 X 0.25 = 6.25% probability of losing two battles in a row; 0.25e3 = 1.6% probability of losing 3 battles in a row). In my recent situation, it is even more pronounced where I was using dragons with 90% chance of winning as the opponent dragons were levels 1 to 6 (i.e. start of current tournament). In fact I lost about 10 first battles in a row. The chances of losing just 3 battles in a row using a dragon with 90% probability of winning is already a miniscule 0.1% (i.e. 0.1 X 0.1 X 0.1) and it gets statistically tiny after that!

To put this into a layman's perspective with a real world example, let's look at the record of one of the greatest tennis players of all time, Roger Federer. One can safely say (backed up by betting odds) that when Roger plays any player outside of the top 100, the probability of him winning would conservatively be 90% (something akin to using a Level 15 Champion dragon to battle a Level 6 Fire). So, in the last 17 years (since 2000), he has played many players ranked outside the top 100 and in that time, he has only lost 2 matches (i.e. one a few days ago, and one in 2000 when he lost to James Sekulov at Indianapolis) and never lost 2 in a row as the probability of that is smaller than 1%! So from this, it can be seen that losing 2 battles in a row using a high percentage dragon is statistically unlikely and losing more than 3 battles in a row just does not stack up!

[savage_mel]

argh this whole bingo thing is a pain. Im sure the answer to this is in this thread somewhere but i can't sift through 81 pages to find it. So, on the Leagues and Prizes page is says if you finish in the silver league you get 15 tickets. Well, what do you have to do to get those tickets? because i finished (6th place) in the silver league and I only got 5!

[savage_mel]

argh this whole bingo thing is a pain. Im sure the answer to this is in this thread somewhere but i can't sift through 81 pages to find it. So, on the Leagues and Prizes page is says if you finish in the silver league you get 15 tickets. Well, what do you have to do to get those tickets? because i finished (6th place) in the silver league and I only got 5!

Ok! Never mind. I see now how you get 15. Top 3. []! It will take forever to get any thing. I've made a few weak attempts at bingo but progress was always so slow that I gave up. I'm actually trying now since that seems to be the only way I can get another GPD

[geckoos]

Finishing 18th place in gold sucks considering actually dropping to silver

[9krm]

I just started playing bingo in the last few weeks and have won a few of the boosts but I can't figure out how to use them. I don't get what this means: "You can activate a boost by selecting the building and a new HUD button will appear at the bottom of the screen"

Can someone explain it to me?
Say I want to use a food boost, do I click on the activate icon and then plant the food?

I feel dumb, like I should get it, but I don't. LOL
Thanks

[snowyhillz]

I just started playing bingo in the last few weeks and have won a few of the boosts but I can't figure out how to use them. I don't get what this means: "You can activate a boost by selecting the building and a new HUD button will appear at the bottom of the screen"

Can someone explain it to me?
Say I want to use a food boost, do I click on the activate icon and then plant the food?

I feel dumb, like I should get it, but I don't. LOL
Thanks

If you want to use a food boost click on your farm, then click on boost activate button it will come up with how many of each of the boosts you have (if any) headed with tap to activate .... click on the one you want to use - note that there is a max of 8 of each type of boost

[Limequat]

Actually, in Limequat's situation (which is simiiar to mine), it can be statistically proven using the Bernouilli Process that the battles are rigged. It is different from rolling dices as each battle only has an outcome of win or loss (as opposed to 6 outcomes).

So, in Limequat's case, the chances of winning a battle when using a dragon with a 75% probability of winning actually increases with each battle attempt (i.e. 25% chance of losing in the first attempt, then 0.25 X 0.25 = 6.25% probability of losing two battles in a row; 0.25e3 = 1.6% probability of losing 3 battles in a row). In my recent situation, it is even more pronounced where I was using dragons with 90% chance of winning as the opponent dragons were levels 1 to 6 (i.e. start of current tournament). In fact I lost about 10 first battles in a row. The chances of losing just 3 battles in a row using a dragon with 90% probability of winning is already a miniscule 0.1% (i.e. 0.1 X 0.1 X 0.1) and it gets statistically tiny after that!

When I was in first place a few weeks ago in a not so competitive group, I once lost four battles in a row with dragons that had a 75% or higher chance of winning. The task was to win eight battles, and I struggled with almost every one of them. I didn't keep track of the exact number, but less than half of the battles were won on the first try, and I almost ran out of time even though I had two days to complete the task. I failed to complete two other battle tasks due to running out of time (despite logging in every hour and using two ads to skip waiting). They were for completing three battles in six hours - under normal circumstances, I'm pretty sure I could have gotten through them with no problem. When I'm battling non-tournament dragons outside of bingo, I win almost every time, which is consistent with the expected percentages.

I've also noticed that the opposite occurs when you're at the bottom of your group. I just got my Gold Horizon dragon yesterday, and although I like the boost prizes we get in bingo, I'm too tired to keep up with the competition in the gold and silver leagues. I'm dropping down to bronze and below, so I'm sitting at number 23 now in my group. Just for fun, I decided to do the two battle tasks that are on my card. One was to win three battles - I won all three on the first try. I'm currently on the second task, which is to win two battles with a stone type dragon. The best stone type dragon I had for the dragon currently in the arena had a 25% chance of winning. And... I won on the first try. Either I'm really lucky today, or the battles are rigged in your favor when you're at the bottom.

It could all just be a coincidence that people are breeding rare dragons when they need a common dragon and losing battles they have a high chance of winning during Bingo, but it's hard not to think there isn't any manipulation going on. Especially when people have been reporting the same experiences with breeding and battling for Tales and tournaments for ages.

[JustKay]

I wouldn't be surprised if the game helped lower charting players along to keep them staying in the game. There's no point letting anyone in a group feel like there's no hope, since after all the game is supposed to be fun. It's only fun if you feel you have a chance of making good progress. That said based on my observations in LB and Bingo, if you're way way down, then points will come easier. Spin Wheel was giving me 200 to 300 points a spin on my baby accounts where I log in maybe once or twice a day to play. I noticed the points they give you are usually enough to bring you up to about the 10/20 region so you're still in the game. They don't really push you up to the top 3 unless you are in a group of really casual players. I think if you're in the top 5 you are probably competing on equal ground, but inevitably helping drag the rest of the group up a bit. That's why I think there's a silver lining when I see a serious player in an event, since I know they'll make accumulating points for the rest of the group easier. I mean I'll still hatch plan to overtake them in the later days, but at the start happy to ride along on their coat tails.

[Hartoled]

I find that it's the second and third place players who set the tone of the game. I always observe, on the first day of a new round, who is feeling frisky, and make a note of their progress that first day or two. After that, I pass them up. If they insist on keeping pace with me, I press hard until I'm ahead of them by that margin, or more, that they set the first day. Thereafter, I watch the second and third placers. If they just take turns, feebly leapfrogging each other, I prepare for a long hard-fought session, and a big final 24 hours. I've led pairs like that by a margin of 2.5 X their scores, for most of the week, and still finished with number 2 close behind me. If number 2 is willing to crush number 3, early on, but not crowd me too much, I find it to be a leisurely week, in the end.