Castle Story: Lady Pfefferknot's Visit! (EXPIRED EVENT) 6/4/15 - 6/29/15

[AnniePMH]

I just collected my 6th cork in a row. Assuming that each vineyard collection is an independent event and the chance of getting either item is 50%, the probability of my particular run of six corks in a row is 1.56%. If my next collection yields another cork, the probability will fall to 0.78%. I have not restarted my device today.

These probabilities seem awfully low. If the reports of restarting devices yielding a more even drop distribution are not coincidental, I am curious if there's an issue with how the random number generator was implemented. Or, each cork/barrel collection is NOT an independent event, in which case I hope it was set up such that drops do even out eventually based on whichever algorithm governing them.

I understand you, this is the way I worry about the rare drops such as faerie campfire and dragon/manty eggs - not independent event and bad algorithms...However, other players with statistical/computer knowledge have tried to reassure me that the algorithms should be fine...

[boud21]

Hope so was getting kinda bored !!

[tuffyjkitten]

The black pig is the only one you can buy with coins, so that should be ok

Ok maybe I have my pigs mixed up then. But if the cheapest black one does count, what is the "regular" pig that doesn't? Way too much thought on pigs right now...but I love my new teacup pig on FS2!

[kittensabc]

I just collected my 6th cork in a row. Assuming that each vineyard collection is an independent event and the chance of getting either item is 50%, the probability of my particular run of six corks in a row is 1.56%. If my next collection yields another cork, the probability will fall to 0.78%. I have not restarted my device today.

These probabilities seem awfully low. If the reports of restarting devices yielding a more even drop distribution are not coincidental, I am curious if there's an issue with how the random number generator was implemented. Or, each cork/barrel collection is NOT an independent event, in which case I hope it was set up such that drops do even out eventually based on whichever algorithm governing them.

Hi, here is everything I know regarding these drops:
-Your game does not communicate with storm8's servers to determine the Vineyard drops
-Your game does not use time stamps to determine Vineyard drops
-These drops are independent events and are not predetermined
-The drops fall within the expected range (due to constraints on my sample size) for a 50/50 drop chance
-From this I infer that they use a random number calculator to determine the drop for each collection and that this calculation occurs within your own game

It is possible, but unlikely, that different users may have different drop chances/mechanics, I have no idea. However my own game appears to be functioning in a fair and expected way.

[matrixkitten]

I understand you, this is the way I worry about the rare drops such as faerie campfire and dragon/manty eggs - not independent event and bad algorithms...However, other players with statistical/computer knowledge have tried to reassure me that the algorithms should be fine...

Heh, well, I suppose we'll see how this keeps progressing! But, math does not lie, and for many people who posted here drops are getting into such low percentage outcomes that one can't help but wonder.

We can't really dig further into this without developer input. Just on the surface, the numbers seem rather low for a 50/50 independent event. I suppose it's possible that a pseudo-random number algorithm was used, which is more predictable. Either way, going further is pure speculation, though a somewhat interesting one for some of us techies

I will either restart my main device (iOS) or log in through my Android phone before next collection to see what happens. Just for fun, since the probability of the next collection is still 50/50 (assuming all the things I mentioned in my initial post).

[matrixkitten]

Hi, here is everything I know regarding these drops:
-Your game does not communicate with storm8's servers to determine the Vineyard drops
-Your game does not use time stamps to determine Vineyard drops
-These drops are independent events and are not predetermined
-The drops fall within the expected range (due to constraints on my sample size) for a 50/50 drop chance
-From this I infer that they use a random number calculator to determine the drop for each collection and that this calculation occurs within your own game

It is possible, but unlikely, that different users may have different drop chances/mechanics, I have no idea. However my own game appears to be functioning in a fair and expected way.

The above has been my assumption as well. As for my own case, the outcomes are on the low end, but certainly not improbable. I am very tempted to just collect the next drop as usual - on iOS without restart, just for further statistics and curiosity. But, I sure do want that barrel, which is what stands between me and a level 4 vineyard. I'll report back after my next collection with results.

[55lee55]

The cat takes 4000 grapes.

And

I just read someone say the cat is 10000 grapes?!?!?!? I thought it was 4100??

You are absolutely right! the correct number is 4,000. Sorry, I was thinking of two things at the same time and I put the incorrect number in my post. I am going to correct it now!

I realized my mistake and was coming back to correct it but I am glad you caught it first. Thanks!

[mreames]

Exactly, assuming all things equal, it will still be a 50/50 chance regardless of previous results. I find that it's not really that uncommon to get heads 6 times in a row, or tails... When there is a large enough sample. I'm no expert, though.
On here, we are seeing people with a lot more corks than barrels, a lot more barrels than corks and plenty of people that getting them fairly equal. I do feel for the people that are stuck getting one thing but there is still 3 weeks to go. It won't exactly balance out but it's also highly unlikely that the streaks will continue forever.

Heh, well, I suppose we'll see how this keeps progressing! But, math does not lie, and for many people who posted here drops are getting into such low percentage outcomes that one can't help but wonder.

We can't really dig further into this without developer input. Just on the surface, the numbers seem rather low for a 50/50 independent event. I suppose it's possible that a pseudo-random number algorithm was used, which is more predictable. Either way, going further is pure speculation, though a somewhat interesting one for some of us techies

I will either restart my main device (iOS) or log in through my Android phone before next collection to see what happens. Just for fun, since the probability of the next collection is still 50/50 (assuming all the things I mentioned in my initial post).

[mreames]

Ok maybe I have my pigs mixed up then. But if the cheapest black one does count, what is the "regular" pig that doesn't? Way too much thought on pigs right now...but I love my new teacup pig on FS2!

The "regular" pig is the basic pink pig (not Cupid pig). It just says "pig" in the market. I do find it strange that it doesn't count, though.

[mreames]

Since you're on th verge of getting the cat bed, I'd say that you're extremely likely to get the cat in the next week.
You're right behind me on totals and I expect to get the cat in the next few days.

You're way ahead of me on vineyard level, though. Lol I'm just at level 4.

You are absolutely right! Sorry, I was thinking of two things at the same time and I put the incorrect number in my post. I am going to correct it now!

I realized my mistake and was comong back to correct it but I am glad you caught it first. Thanks!