Frustrated breeders

[ArcadiaTofu]

Thanks, RorJam & rjazz!



Most of your questions are rhetorical but the one I bolded actually has an answer that is obvious to one as cynical as myself: when two or more animals of the same element combo have the same timer on them, it is done 100% for the purpose of frustrating us. With the intent of twisting our arms into using gems to speed breed it to see if we got what we wanted or not. If all the timers were unique, as we would ALL prefer it, we would know as soon as we saw the timer what we got and therefore be less likely to spend gems on speeding it.

I completely, 100% agree with Zen on this statement, and I would like to make a small correction to her statement: It's not cynicism that prompts such statements, but realism. Being a realist, I know that if new creatures came out with unique breed times the chances of me (and everyone else in the game) speed breeding to 'see' if what I got was what I was aiming for would be nearly ZERO. Copied breed times are done for the sole reason of making the user speed the breeding up in hopes of seeing right-then-and-there if the animal was the one they were breeding for. The statistics don't lie, especially for a company as well-versed in psychology as TL is, so the obvious answer is: They do it to get us to spend more gems.

I'd be very curious, though, to see what TL's official response to that question would be, though. Very curious.

I guess what it all comes down to is what you believe, yourself. This game is free, yes, but if you want to progress in the game faster, you have to shell out the money for that. This is a business, first and foremost, and a successful business is always on the look-out for ways to make it harder for the user to advance without spending RL currency. One such way (after long breed times, long evolution times, lower odds, etc.) is to make the user more likely to speed up breedings (rinse and repeat should you not get what you were breeding exclusively for) out of excitement/frustration. Those two emotions, in the end, are what prompts users to spend gems, after all

[Vodelle]

Am I the only one who feels no compulsion to speed breed (especially because of identical timers)? I mean, I can understand how that 'trick' would work, but I'd either speed breed a BUNCH of nests in a row to get what I'm looking for (at which point an extra 20 gems or whatever to check to see if I got what I wanted is just a blip on the probably 100+ I would have spent at that point) or I don't speed breed at all, in which case I'm certainly not going to drop those 20 gems when I've been patiently breeding up to that point.

[readysetgo888]

Am I the only one who feels no compulsion to speed breed (especially because of identical timers)? I mean, I can understand how that 'trick' would work, but I'd either speed breed a BUNCH of nests in a row to get what I'm looking for (at which point an extra 20 gems or whatever to check to see if I got what I wanted is just a blip on the probably 100+ I would have spent at that point) or I don't speed breed at all, in which case I'm certainly not going to drop those 20 gems when I've been patiently breeding up to that point.

I've never done any speed breeding. It just costs way too much. I think the identical timers are definitely very effective at making people speed that particular breeding, although it really feels ridiculous because the amount of gems they get from that can't be very much. I assume they get most of their money from people that regularly speed breed, regardless of the timers... not by tempting people who normally don't speed into spending 20 gems here and there to speed identical timers. But, it must work, or they wouldn't do it.

Anyway, an update for me on breeding: after over a month of awful breedings which prompted me to start this thread, I had over a month of very successful breedings with many new animals, including all the limited fall earth-nature animals, all the Christmas animals including Present Pheasant and Menoram, and the Chimpala. Now, I've gone back to constant fails with 40+ tries for the Chulthlu.

Here are my thoughts:
1) Does breeding go in cycles? Is it designed to have players be "more lucky" for a while, to encourage them to stick with the game and spend money during the "less lucky" phases?

2) At least for me, the chance of getting newer limited animals doesn't seem to have been hurt after they go limited, like it was with the Frankenswine. If anything, the odds seem to have improved, which would be fantastic. I got both Pumpkin Panda and Harvest Hedgehog almost immediately after they became limited... this after failing many, many times for them when they first came out and weren't limited. Could definitely be a coincidence, but interesting. I plan to try for the Yeti right after it goes limited just to see if it happens again.

3) I'm wondering if there may be certain animals that each player just can't get without speed breeding. It seems that only players that routinely spend a ton of money speeding have full albums.

I need to go through and calculate my odds again, and see if they've changed any. I now have 2 months of breeding data since I started keeping track.

[Vodelle]

1) Does breeding go in cycles? Is it designed to have players be "more lucky" for a while, to encourage them to stick with the game and spend money during the "less lucky" phases?

Easily explained by statistics instead of planned greedy malice. People are way more likely to notice successful breedings where they get what they want OR long streaks of being unlucky (which, well, in this game you are more likely to 'fail' breedings than not, so you will obviously have more of those anyway). You roll the dice enough times and you WILL eventually get something.

2) At least for me, the chance of getting newer limited animals doesn't seem to have been hurt after they go limited, like it was with the Frankenswine. If anything, the odds seem to have improved, which would be fantastic. I got both Pumpkin Panda and Harvest Hedgehog almost immediately after they became limited... this after failing many, many times for them when they first came out and weren't limited. Could definitely be a coincidence, but interesting. I plan to try for the Yeti right after it goes limited just to see if it happens again.

Honestly, the sample sizes for this are so small it's really not something any of us could make a call on. All the limited animals I have (the 3 xmas animals, the chimpala, two of the fall animals - admittedly I have not been around as long) I got before they went limited (or in the case of the chimpala, it was a rare I got lucky on like 5 days in, and that started off limited. other limited animals like the cold turkey, or currently the menoram/confetti yeti I have been unsuccessful breeding). That's not to say that they don't possibly tweak the breeding rates either as time goes on or when they become limited or whatever, but I've heard both "maybe they're easier when they're limited" and "regular rare/SR animals are easier to get when there's a limited in that elemental category because they make the limited harder to get!" or whatever so... really, pick & choose at that point.

3) I'm wondering if there may be certain animals that each player just can't get without speed breeding. It seems that only players that routinely spend a ton of money speeding have full albums.

Don't attribute to malice what you can, once again, attribute to statistics. Statistically, the chance of you being able to get each limited animal within the week they give you is almost impossible without speed breeding, yes. If you want a full album in a game like this, you WILL need to pay for it. That said, I highly doubt they are sitting there and programming certain accounts to make it impossible to breed certain animals (the act of speed breeding doesn't or shouldn't change your odds, and while I can think of ways they could program it in, I think it's a lot easier to have low statistical chance work its magic instead).

[readysetgo888]

Honestly, the sample sizes for this are so small it's really not something any of us could make a call on. All the limited animals I have (the 3 xmas animals, the chimpala, two of the fall animals - admittedly I have not been around as long) I got before they went limited (or in the case of the chimpala, it was a rare I got lucky on like 5 days in, and that started off limited. other limited animals like the cold turkey, or currently the menoram/confetti yeti I have been unsuccessful breeding). That's not to say that they don't possibly tweak the breeding rates either as time goes on or when they become limited or whatever, but I've heard both "maybe they're easier when they're limited" and "regular rare/SR animals are easier to get when there's a limited in that elemental category because they make the limited harder to get!" or whatever so... really, pick & choose at that point.

Yeah, I get that. I can't really draw any conclusions with only one account as a sample... I'd need many, many accounts. I just like to speculate.

Don't attribute to malice what you can, once again, attribute to statistics. Statistically, the chance of you being able to get each limited animal within the week they give you is almost impossible without speed breeding, yes. If you want a full album in a game like this, you WILL need to pay for it. That said, I highly doubt they are sitting there and programming certain accounts to make it impossible to breed certain animals (the act of speed breeding doesn't or shouldn't change your odds, and while I can think of ways they could program it in, I think it's a lot easier to have low statistical chance work its magic instead).

I actually was referring to there being certain permanent animals that you can't get without being a big spender, not the limited ones. Absolutely no doubt that you can't get all the limited animals without speeding... I've said that many times because I think it's important for players to understand that early on so they can play the game with the correct expectations. And yes low odds WILL cause that to happen without there being any need to tweak it further....

It's my inability to breed a Sea Drake that caused me to make that statement... because of the sheer number of times I've tried for it in the months I've been playing without getting one. Sure, it's possible that nothing weird is going on because the odds of breeding any super rare are quite low, but eh... I wonder.

I also forgot to mention that I wonder if the odds of getting a particular animal increase after you've gotten your first one. That would make sense as most people don't want two of an animal and therefore a second or third one etc would only mean longer fail times, which translates to more gems to speed. That could help explain why people seem to get two or three of a super rare while trying for a limited rare... whereas, if you actually NEED the super rare as well, it seems less likely to get it.

I know... I know... there's no way to draw any conclusions and literally anything that happens on any one account IS possible simply through chance.

That being said, I don't think it's a stretch to think that they mess with the odds. It makes sense for them to increase the likelihood of getting longer rare fails when a limited animal is released. Even to the point that a supposedly "rare" limited actually has the odds of a super rare, or worse. Also, that the odds of getting a particular animal might increase once you've gotten it once. I don't know that that's the case, and it certainly doesn't have to be, but given everything else we've seen, I think it's quite possible.

I do doubt that they mess with the odds on an individual basis. I can't imagine that being worth the massive amount of trouble it would be, when, as you say, simply having very low odds uniformly will do the work for them. I don't actually believe that my particular account is blocked from getting a Sea Drake unless I spend a certain amount of money on the game. ((Although, I can't say I'd necessarily bet against it, either.))

[Vodelle]

I actually was referring to there being certain permanent animals that you can't get without being a big spender, not the limited ones. Absolutely no doubt that you can't get all the limited animals without speeding... I've said that many times because I think it's important for players to understand that early on so they can play the game with the correct expectations. And yes low odds WILL cause that to happen without there being any need to tweak it further....

It's my inability to breed a Sea Drake that caused me to make that statement... because of the sheer number of times I've tried for it in the months I've been playing without getting one. Sure, it's possible that nothing weird is going on because the odds of breeding any super rare are quite low, but eh... I wonder.

I'm really sorry, and I'm going to try to say this in the nicest way possible I can over the internet, but I honestly think that sounds like grade A paranoia. I can see the arguments for making limiteds hard to get (although I still HIGHLY doubt they mess account-by-account as opposed to just messing with global rates or letting RNG do the work for them) but making certain permanent-album animals be un-breedable (unless... you... spend money? ????) is just silly and I honestly can't imagine the argument for it. I mean, maybe someone who REALLY wants to complete their album ASAP (the huge whales who will spend to get any animal regardless) will speed-breed or whatever, but I'm pretty sure 95% of people are perfectly fine waiting for non-limited animals to pop up in their forest whenever that may be.

Even then, I'm pretty sure a lot of us long-term players have either spent money on a package or gems at some point (in which case the easiest programming to do would be to flip a moneyspent variable to yes) or have at least spent gems. I can see how they'd do it but it really makes no sense.

And, well, unless you've literally done a combination that can result in that sea drake hundreds of times, I'm inclined to say it's just bad luck. I've done water/lightning over 40x now and have gotten nothing but conducktors and falconches (even though I could have possibly gotten the menoram, the confetti yeti, OR the hippogryph). Out of the last 53 breedings that I've recorded, only two have been either super rare or ultra rare (one of each). If I take that as a 3% chance at a super rare, that's not that rare but it still means you could breed water/dark 50 times in a row and have a 21% chance of not getting a super rare. (And that's if SR rates are the same across all elements and not tweaked for each SR / element combination based on what other animals are available or whatever.)

Just trying to put it in perspective. Much like I've spent all my time trying water/lightning and not getting anything, I am sure you've done some other combo and got an SR out of it in just a few times. That's just a way of demonstrating how you can have really poor luck in one scenario but good luck in another.

[readysetgo888]

I'm really sorry, and I'm going to try to say this in the nicest way possible I can over the internet, but I honestly think that sounds like grade A paranoia. I can see the arguments for making limiteds hard to get (although I still HIGHLY doubt they mess account-by-account as opposed to just messing with global rates or letting RNG do the work for them) but making certain permanent-album animals be un-breedable (unless... you... spend money? ????) is just silly and I honestly can't imagine the argument for it. I mean, maybe someone who REALLY wants to complete their album ASAP (the huge whales who will spend to get any animal regardless) will speed-breed or whatever, but I'm pretty sure 95% of people are perfectly fine waiting for non-limited animals to pop up in their forest whenever that may be.

Even then, I'm pretty sure a lot of us long-term players have either spent money on a package or gems at some point (in which case the easiest programming to do would be to flip a moneyspent variable to yes) or have at least spent gems. I can see how they'd do it but it really makes no sense.

And, well, unless you've literally done a combination that can result in that sea drake hundreds of times, I'm inclined to say it's just bad luck. I've done water/lightning over 40x now and have gotten nothing but conducktors and falconches (even though I could have possibly gotten the menoram, the confetti yeti, OR the hippogryph). Out of the last 53 breedings that I've recorded, only two have been either super rare or ultra rare (one of each). If I take that as a 3% chance at a super rare, that's not that rare but it still means you could breed water/dark 50 times in a row and have a 21% chance of not getting a super rare. (And that's if SR rates are the same across all elements and not tweaked for each SR / element combination based on what other animals are available or whatever.)

Just trying to put it in perspective. Much like I've spent all my time trying water/lightning and not getting anything, I am sure you've done some other combo and got an SR out of it in just a few times. That's just a way of demonstrating how you can have really poor luck in one scenario but good luck in another.

Well, I did say I doubt that they mess with the individual account-by-account odds. My only theory, if anything, is that they might make just one or two super rares unbreedable for a specific account when the game is created unless a specific amount is spent... not that they go in and mess with odds for individual players regularly or anything. I definitely don't believe that. And the other is just a theory, it could be and likely is totally wrong - but worth at least speculating on.

What I said I do kind of think is that they lower the odds on limited animals and increase the odds of rare animals to create longer fails when a limited or new animal is available (for everyone, not individually). It makes perfect sense for them to do that - and it wouldn't be that difficult.

[Vodelle]

Yeah, I almost kind of buy into the whole "other non-limited rares are easier to get when a limited animal is released" because I've observed that w/cold turkey (got a glacial griffin) and the chimpala (magmacore) but on the other hand I never got any SR while trying for xmas animals and I never got the hippogryph while trying for menoram/confetti yeti either, so *shrugs*

I just think out of all the tricks they can use to get people to spend, making non-limited SRs impossible to get makes zero sense. That's something 99% of people would never notice nor does it promote or incentivize spending in any way. (As I mentioned, the only people who would speed for a non-limited animal that's not an ultra rare are probably completionists who would do so anyway. A normal player wouldn't notice that kind of block on their account.) There's plenty of stuff to complain about in FFS without resorting to making up money-spending incentives that make almost no sense. As I said - how many breedings for the sea drake (and not any other elemental combo thrown in) have you done? Or is it not as many as you may think?

[readysetgo888]

Yeah, I almost kind of buy into the whole "other non-limited rares are easier to get when a limited animal is released" because I've observed that w/cold turkey (got a glacial griffin) and the chimpala (magmacore) but on the other hand I never got any SR while trying for xmas animals and I never got the hippogryph while trying for menoram/confetti yeti either, so *shrugs*

I just think out of all the tricks they can use to get people to spend, making non-limited SRs impossible to get makes zero sense. That's something 99% of people would never notice nor does it promote or incentivize spending in any way. (As I mentioned, the only people who would speed for a non-limited animal that's not an ultra rare are probably completionists who would do so anyway. A normal player wouldn't notice that kind of block on their account.) There's plenty of stuff to complain about in FFS without resorting to making up money-spending incentives that make almost no sense. As I said - how many breedings for the sea drake (and not any other elemental combo thrown in) have you done? Or is it not as many as you may think?

Ok fine I'll give up on my Sea Drake conspiracy theory lol. I do understand where you're coming from and it doesn't make much sense, I admit. Hopefully that means there's hope I'll get it eventually after all.

I have done a ton of breedings for it, but probably not as many as your electric-water fails, at least not since I've been keeping track. I don't know how you can stand it! I'd have given up long ago and tried for something else just for variety.

[AuntyRose32]

Am I the only one who feels no compulsion to speed breed (especially because of identical timers)? I mean, I can understand how that 'trick' would work, but I'd either speed breed a BUNCH of nests in a row to get what I'm looking for (at which point an extra 20 gems or whatever to check to see if I got what I wanted is just a blip on the probably 100+ I would have spent at that point) or I don't speed breed at all, in which case I'm certainly not going to drop those 20 gems when I've been patiently breeding up to that point.

Nope. I don't speed breed either. Never saw the point of it, I'm in no rush to have every single creature. Although I do agree it gets a little frustrating waiting it out sometimes (confetti yeti is ****ing me), having said that, I still just wait it out...lol. The odd time, if I'm drifting off to sleep and I want to breed two animals before bedtime, I'll speed up the last hour but that's about it and it doesn't happen too often.
I buy a lot of gems for these various TL games but I just can't reconcile myself with speed breeding.