Breeding Combos and Questions (Thread 1)

[Petasos]

Well now with the new beasties this week I have some work to do, I am 3 shy of full. When I first started I thought that adding a rarer hybrid would effect the outcome. I would add a fairy ferret instead of panda with the pyro pony. Then I would replace it with a Simian to try for a vinotaur. I was incredibly lucky as I was so successful I was convinced that worked. I have always been lucky but I came to realize it does not work that way. At least I do not think it does now after hundreds of tries. I did speed breed just so everyone knows.

I hit a wall with the dark super rares. It seems like the more I tried for a specific beastie the more I would fail common. Omg the hordes of raccoons, foxes, and armordilos are too many to count. What ended up working for me was I got lucky enough to get a sea drake. I have only ever got one of those and one Pegasus. That eliminated water from the elements at the time so all that was left was the remaining three dark element super rares. So I started trying for a unicorn instead. I used any combination of dark, fire, nature, and rock. I seem to favor putting a fox on one side because I do not get a lot of foxes for some reason that way. You will fail raccoons though, just as bad. So instead of targeting one I was targeting all three, and I was also targeting the unicorn.

What I have found out is you can get any combination of what you put in. In some instances only one element might come out but that is only when using at least one ultra. So you will generally get any combination of the four elements you put in but it seemed to me that with dark and fire on one side I was less likely to end up with dark and fire. That is just me thinking out loud and I am sure I am wrong but it seemed to work out that way most of the time. So I will always get a combination of dark green, dark rock, fire green, fire rock, green rock, and dark fire. You can manipulate the creatures on each side and see if that works for you, but there is really no right way.

It really is a random number generator though. Imagine it randomized the 4 elements and picks two totally by chance, or a .5% it is a crystal unicorn. It then re-rolls for all animals with that combination. Let's say for example it selects dark and fire. In this example lets say there are 100 numbers. A random number between 1 and 100 is generated. If it is between 1 and 50 it is a fox, if it between 51 and 80 it is a bear, 81 to 90 now an ox, 91 to100 a phoenix. That's how it really works. Every thing else is just a forum fable. I am sure the numbers are different because that was just an example.

I will not lie, you will still get a lot of commons, but you will also start to upgrade your duplicates with rares. I got a lot of owls, moths, and later griffins, when I added water back in. They are good earners so be happy for those duplicates, level them to lvl 6 before food is too expensive for a duplicate. As you fill up, you keep upgrading your rare duplicates to bottom tier supers and you start making good money that way.

In the end I got most of my dark supers when I stopped trying to target one and targeted all of them with four element breeding. That has been my experience.

Here are my supers

Top tier - not too many
Sea drake 1
Pagasus 1
Gargolem 3
Phoenix 2
Ox 1

Bottom tier - lotta these
Vinotaur 2
Grasssquatch 4
Griffin 5
Magmacore 2
Owl 2

I divide them based on earnings. I do not count battle critters as I did not breed them.

[Anyuszko]

This assertion is based in a misunderstanding of probability. Each time you breed is an independent trial. The random number generator doesn't have 'memory'. It doesn't think, "Well, I've generated 50 commons in a row, so I should through a rare out there now." That's just not how probability works! If there's a 1 in 50 chance of getting a super rare, that means over a large number of trials, it should come close to 1 in 50 for super rares. But large means LARGE. Like, all the trials. Not just your account's trials. So, no, it's not impossible. It's improbable, but not impossible.

Well you are true but I learned some statistics at school, long time ago (uh more than 20 years..). So, lets say getting common animal has 80% chance (and 20% chance for rares/super rares).

If you breed once, you have 80% chance on getting common, and just 20% chance of "failing" on rare/super rares.
If you try it twice, your chance for 2 commons (both breed ends with common) is .8 x .8 = 64%, with a 36% chance of "failing" on rare/super rare in one of these 2 breeds.
If you breed 10 times, you only have 11% chance of getting only commons, and 89% chance of failing on at least one rare/super rares.

With 20 tries, your chance is only 1.1% of getting only commons. 98,9% chance of failing on at least one rare.

So, after 70 commons, what should I think?


I am currently trying for storm sphynx. Over 10 tries, can you find out what do I have? Yes! 8 Thunderhawks walking in habitats (check my island), one in egg, in the nest, and another 16 hours fail in the den. Not even an Eagle Beagle. Just bad luck, isnt it?

[Anyuszko]

Dear TeamLava,

Please understand, that if you keep blocking my main account (ZX71) of getting super rares, I wont support the game. There is absolutely no point on buying gems, when the result is only getting instant commons with speed breedings.

I was supporting FS (you can check) before you turned my odds to zero. I am ready to support it further, if I see a clear reason.

Since a month ago, I cant breed super rares whatever I try. The result was more than 70 commons (lost on counting), with only 4 rares. Last 20 tries ended with commons only.
I was reporting it in the bug section as well, it is still unanswered.
https://forums.storm8.com/showthread....possible-error

I hope you wont loose a good customer.

[SANDSCApe]

Well you are true but I learned some statistics at school, long time ago (uh more than 20 years..). So, lets say getting common animal has 80% chance (and 20% chance for rares/super rares).

If you breed once, you have 80% chance on getting common, and just 20% chance of "failing" on rare/super rares.
If you try it twice, your chance for 2 commons (both breed ends with common) is .8 x .8 = 64%, with a 36% chance of "failing" on rare/super rare in one of these 2 breeds.
If you breed 10 times, you only have 11% chance of getting only commons, and 89% chance of failing on at least one rare/super rares.

With 20 tries, your chance is only 1.1% of getting only commons. 98,9% chance of failing on at least one rare.

So, after 70 commons, what should I think?


I am currently trying for storm sphynx. Over 10 tries, can you find out what do I have? Yes! 8 Thunderhawks walking in habitats (check my island), one in egg, in the nest, and another 16 hours fail in the den. Not even an Eagle Beagle. Just bad luck, isnt it?

Yeah, that sounds very much like my experience breeding for the Electric-Nature Super. Who am I kidding? That's my experience breeding for just about ANY Super! ... Or Rare, for that matter.

Not all games of chance work the same way. E.g., Drawing different colored balls from a bin will adjust your odds after each draw. Rolling dice gives you the same odds on every roll. HugPete is correct. Every time you breed is a fresh trial with the same odds for a particular breed from a particular combination. Same odds that you had before with that same combination. Your previous rolls don't inform the current one. The only thing that can change your chances is:
A. the introduction or removal of animals that can be bred with your combination.
B. coding to reassign the chances of breeding a particular animal (which would apply universally to all players).

I truly don't think TeamLava is picking on you, and singling you out for breeding punishment. Why would they? They have thousands of eager (and sometimes even reluctant) gem purchasers. You were just one.

Breeding "failure" is normal. Really, it is!

[Anyuszko]

I truly don't think TeamLava is picking on you, and singling you out for breeding punishment. Why would they? They have thousands of eager (and sometimes even reluctant) gem purchasers. You were just one.
Breeding "failure" is normal. Really, it is!

Well, as a long time player (CS, DS, and more) I saw several times that TL are sometimes testing us different ways. As for some examples:
- introducing gem-only additions with different price for different player (for you is 100 gems, for me 50, for other 200..)
- in DS, boosted breed costed differently (coins, gems, apples) for different players
- also in DS, there was a time when breeding time halfed for all dragons, only for "selected" players
- and so on

Making these, TL tests the market, which strategy can bring more money to them. Which group of players became money spenders, which became refusers and so. And at the end, the best dollar earning price/strategy/etc should become the standard for everyone.

I think in this game I became suddenly (really suddenly, I got luck before it in the first month) a part of players whose odds were reduced (or maybe got down to zero), while others still can get their animals easily. As described, it is almost impossible being just unlucky for a whole month.

I decided to stay in Fantasy forest until I clear the north island. It takes me about 1-2 more weeks. In case my situation remains the same after it, i will quit. What I am seeking is fun, and although it is funny to conversate on forum with you ("you" mean those 3-4 people who are really active on this forum), the fun part is quickly going off the game itself..

[Petasos]

Well, as a long time player (CS, DS, and more) I saw several times that TL are sometimes testing us different ways. As for some examples:
- introducing gem-only additions with different price for different player (for you is 100 gems, for me 50, for other 200..)
- in DS, boosted breed costed differently (coins, gems, apples) for different players
- also in DS, there was a time when breeding time halfed for all dragons, only for "selected" players
- and so on

Making these, TL tests the market, which strategy can bring more money to them. Which group of players became money spenders, which became refusers and so. And at the end, the best dollar earning price/strategy/etc should become the standard for everyone.

I think in this game I became suddenly (really suddenly, I got luck before it in the first month) a part of players whose odds were reduced (or maybe got down to zero), while others still can get their animals easily. As described, it is almost impossible being just unlucky for a whole month.

I decided to stay in Fantasy forest until I clear the north island. It takes me about 1-2 more weeks. In case my situation remains the same after it, i will quit. What I am seeking is fun, and although it is funny to conversate on forum with you ("you" mean those 3-4 people who are really active on this forum), the fun part is quickly going off the game itself..

These "free to play with in game purchase" apps have quite a lot of disdain in the gaming community. Especially for old MMO gamers like myself. I prefer to pay the upfront cost or the fixed monthly amount. For the money you put in here and there you could own several of those games, or subscribed to several. And you would not have to wait a day for something to happen. This waiting for an outcome unless you pay to speed it up is a totally new design specific to tablet apps. There are many past developers who talk to reporters and bloggers. They refer to tactics such as manipulating outcomes specifically on players who pay. The reason is that the player will pay more in the hopes of a better outcome. I see no evidence that TL is doing this but I also see no evidence that they are not. But it most certainly does happen in this new "gaming" industry, and it happens a lot. I still play DS and FFS but will never pay another dime to them as I have read a few of these articles lately.

As far as the number generator is concerned this is just like craps. There are more ways to make 7 with two dice than any other number. The further toward 2 and 12 you go the fewer ways there are get the number. Each roll is independent of the previous roll. They are unconnected but people like to think they are. You stand the same chance of getting a 7 each time you roll the dice.

[SANDSCApe]

Indeed, Anayuszko, I have myself often found myself holding the short end of the stick on way too many of those variable-pricing or variable-opportunity situations you've mentioned in several different games from this company. I think it had the greatest negative impact in directly competitive games like Kingdom Clash but, no matter which game, it just never seems fair.

Even so, players are not individually singled out. Those kinds of tests are done with large groups of players in order to better gauge the different responses -- how many pay more; how many play more; how many spend less; how many quit; how many seem indifferent. In a limited circle of players such as a group of forum regulars or in-game friends who post to each other's walls or a global chat space, it may seem like only one or two players are adversely affected, hence it seems GROSSLY unfair. But in fact those players are part of a much larger group whose members are absent from the conversation.

Such are the tactics of developers who offer these type of games. If you choose to pay, you find yourself in a prickly situation where you're not exactly in a position to demand this or that the way you would if EVERYBODY were paying to play. It is precisely because players have the OPTION to pay or play free that the developer can easily do this sort of thing.

In any case, since we are talking about odds here, and not specific pricing, there is really no way for you to prove that anything is different about your game on the back-end. There's no way to calculate your actual odds based on your realized results, plus we don't know what the supposedly general odds are anyway, so you'd have nothing against which to compare yours. You are convinced that they've severely lowered your chances of breeding desired animals, but this new fail rate you describe is what hundreds of us have faced since we started playing.

What if your early success rate was the "test" and what you're experiencing now is the norm? That's possible too, no? Why do you assume it was normal for you to breed so many rares and supers so effortlessly until recently? That's not most people's normal.

[Anyuszko]

Thanks, Sand. But if it is the "normal" way - TL releases some animals every week while I cannot get any super rares, also rares became ?ber-rares - then it is one step ahead of quitting.
Note also that I got no response from developers.
Also, I am not complaining like oh i cannot get an animals after 3 tries or so - I was starting about mentioning it after like 50 fails.
Meanwhile i got my 11th 16 hours fail in a row.

[Anyuszko]

By the way, i was not extremely lucky or so in the first month. Never got a duplicate from any supers, and only a few from rares. Only exception is ember bear, from which i have 11, because going for dark x fire super rares (got none) i got those embers. Note that i got my embers more than a month ago, 1 month ago also ember bears stopped breeding, only commons left.

[bluefoxcrystal]

Sorry TL but it must be said.
These types of games are addictive and are specifically designed to keep you coming back/wanting more. They are a mix between fun to play and addictive gambling. Now! How often are ppl gonna buy gems (casino chips) to get that beautiful creature that much faster? Or get offensive and violent(verbally or physically) when they don't agree or get frusterated over a stupid "game"? More than a few

I admit it... I spend a little from each paycheck for gems. But I'm pretty laidback. The design of this and ds etc were created for longevity. To keep us all playing and hooked on their game. I love me some ffs. I really loved ds until this last month and my inability to breed me a beautiful unicorn dragon. It's been a nonstop process...

So all... If you need to... Just relax breathe in a little air. And play other things.
I know we'll all get that special creature we wanted (mainly the unicorn or emerald dragon^^). And just enjoy the game as it is