iOS device not able to get Ice Age Dragon

[Korbat]

I have been continuously breeding winter and magic dragons together for months and have not gotten an Ice Age Dragon. The Ice Age dragon is listed as a common dragon. I don't have access to the probability tables that are actually used to govern the prevalence of the various dragons, but it is listed as a common dragon, so I would expect its probability to be at least 1/28, as there are about 28 dragons that winter and magic can produce as offspring.

The chances of breeding winter and magic together 60+ times (as I have) and getting zero Ice Age dragons is very low - (27 / 28)^60 = 0.11280905703. If we say that the chances of getting the common Ice Age dragon are greater than 1/28 (say 1.5/28) we get an even more extreme (26.5 / 28)^60 = 0.03675111803.

I think there is something wrong with how the application is determining if I have an iOS device. If the dragons are truly distributed by random chance and the odds of getting a common dragon truly are higher than the odds of getting a rare dragon then the chances I would get so many failures in a correctly implemented system are very low.

Game version 3.0.2
iOS version 12.1.4(16D57)

[[S8] Elsa]

To clarify, each time you breed is a unique roll on the baby Dragon pool. So breeding x number of times doesn't guarantee a specific result as it only accounts for your current roll, not your past ones. Commons have more weight, but you'll need to consider how many Commons vs Rare+ are in the possible pool and how that might impact the rolls. That's not a bug. Getting certain Dragons involves a multitude of factors including parents you use, what's in the pool, and the player's willingness to persist until they get the Dragon they want. Specific results aren't guaranteed.

It's not possible for the game to be confused about which platform you're using because you can't get a client with the g (Google) marker from the App Store.

[Korbat]

Let's be specific here - the game unequivocally says what parents to breed, and those are precisely the parents I have been using (winter and magic) so the selection of parents is a non-issue. If we assume that commons all have the same weight, and that commons have more weight than any other kind (which to me would be the definition of common) the odds of getting the Ice Age dragon are (1/28) if all dragons are weighted the same, but because commons are higher than rares the odds are probably higher.

I don't know what the exact odds are, as I said, but if we pretend they are (1/28) then we can do some calculations.

The odds of zero successes after 1 trial are (27/28). The odds of zero successes after 2 trials are (27/28)^2, but the odds of zero successes after 60 trials are (27/28)^60 which, as I said above, is pretty low. If we use something more realistic saying that commons are more common than the rares, the odds get even worse. If this is indeed a case of bad luck the chances of me observing a sample as extreme as the one I have assuming everything is working as it is supposed to are very bad - about 3% of the time, and as I breed more and more failures the odds that a proplerly functioning game could generate such extreme results become more and more remote.

I'm at the point where I don't really consider this to be fun, and before I just quit and uninstall the game I was hoping that someone would take this issue seriously and look at it.

[[S8] Elsa]

Thanks for sharing your feedback. I'm sorry to hear that you aren't receiving the Dragon that you want. This is how the breeding logic works for the 7+ year lifespan of the game. Every player has the same odds. It's not a bug to not get a Dragon you want after reaching a personal threshold. We're sorry to see you go. If you decide to return, your game progress will be available to you. If you have further questions about your account, please reach out to our support team for assistance.