Tribal Dragon Battle Arena 24 Round 3 Day

[CranberryMil]

I wish I had read this before. I have thrown about 15 dragons at this Honor dragon and the tournament is ending so I gave in and bought gold because I didn't want to get screwed. Now I feel like I'm marked forever as someone who will do that so I'll just keep getting screwed to force me to buy gold.

im sorry to say it, but yes, you are in your way to the whale amusement tank .

The principal point here is your behavior : "... bought gold because I didn't want to get screwed."

do you want the Tribal dragon?
do you really really really want the Tribal dragon?
or do you do it because the Sunk Cost Fallacy ?

Think about it, is not the game that make "a list of whales" (i hope so) its each one of us that try to justify our own mind bugs .

[CranberryMil]

Ahh, a probability person! With 60% chance of winning, probability of losing twice in a row is 16% (i.e. 0.4x0.4) and at 6.4% for three losses. Unprobable, but I accept that it can happen. However, a little bit of code to throw in a difficulty factor at particular rounds based on specific (or random) player profiles would boost up the chances of losing. This one is minor, but I've had plenty of occasions when I've lost anywhere from 10 to 20+ times on particular rounds significantly against the odds.

The most recent was two tournaments ago in round 27 against Mercury L19 where my Diamond type dragons (i.e. Diamond, Infinity, Valiant, etc.) had a 45% chance to win in each battle. On this occasion, I incurred 14 straight losses before taking it down on the 5th attempt of using Infinity L15 at attempt 15. Probability of losing 14 straight times was supposed to be POWER(0.55, 14) = 0.023%! In the same tournament against Nyx L20, I lost 5 straight times using dragons with 55% and 45% chances of winning; probability of losing 5 straight times was supposed to be 0.45*0.55*0.45*0.55*0.55 = 3.4%.

Pretty much at least one out of every three tournaments, I have encountered a dragon where I would experience 10+ losses before "randomly" taking it down. Hence, it would be reasonable to conclude that something else is at play (aka "rigging").

From a statistical perspective (after you've reviewed my maths post to understand the calculations), if one is battling a level 20 pure Champion (e.g. Immortal), the odds of losing to it ten times in a row in various scenarios would be as follows:
1) For any dragon that has a 10% chance of winning (e.g. Fire): 35% which is unlikely, but could happen;
2) For a dragon that has a 25% chance of winning (e.g. Infinity): 5.6% which is highly unlikely;
3) For any dragon that originally had a 10% chance of winning, but rigged with a 10x difficulty factor, reducing the chance of winning to 1%: 90% which is highly likely;
4) For a dragon that originally had a 25% chance of winning reduced by a 10x reduction to 2.5%: 77.6% which is likely and better odds than scenario 3 above.
Naturally, the likelihood of consecutive losses decreases with each attempt, but with a rigged round where one's dragon has only 1% chance of winning, the odds of losing 20 times is still very high at 82% whilst a dragon with 2.5% chance of winning decreases to 60%.

i feel that your analysis is biased ( you are counting loss after the fact that you lose ) .

The probability of "probability of losing X times" is a compound probability (if you win , you break the chain), But you are implying that "the 60% of win" is the complement result of this "losing X time probability" like having:

win 60% + lose 1 time 16% + lose 2 time 8% + lose 3 time 4% + ... = 100%

And this is not true. Each time you play, you toss the coin, there results of the previous battle dont matter.

[dovanificent]

i feel that your analysis is biased ( you are counting loss after the fact that you lose ) .

The probability of "probability of losing X times" is a compound probability (if you win , you break the chain), But you are implying that "the 60% of win" is the complement result of this "losing X time probability" like having:

win 60% + lose 1 time 16% + lose 2 time 8% + lose 3 time 4% + ... = 100%

And this is not true. Each time you play, you toss the coin, there results of the previous battle dont matter.

Once you battling champ type lvl 18 and up it's all about luck if you don't have the special passion dragon which i don't have.
So far I've been lucky to finish all of the tournament I've played. I can pick the right color dragon to defeat any dragons except for the type and level mentioned above

[SoJam]

Well this was my first DS tournament and my half-raised regular-breed dragons made it to the final round. (Really, I have only a couple super-rares and only 3 dragons at level 10 - two of whom are Fire and Forest; no dragons above level 10 and no ultra-rares; deadly army it is NOT.)
Unfortunately, I went to work with about 8 hours left in the tournament and FORGOT ALL ABOUT IT. Can you believe that? I logged in on my lunch hour and saw the red banner gone from my arena. LOL I never figured I would be THAT kind of loser.
I had been fighting that last dragon on and off since last night. I should have just done an ultimate attack. They have that on DS arena - no? How much does it cost? I figure it can't be too much if you use it just once in a tournament.

[SoJam]

I wish I had read this before. I have thrown about 15 dragons at this Honor dragon and the tournament is ending so I gave in and bought gold because I didn't want to get screwed. Now I feel like I'm marked forever as someone who will do that so I'll just keep getting screwed to force me to buy gold.

Yes. You are marked forever as THAT kind of sucker.

WHAT? Marked? Snap out of it!
Did you or did you not get what you paid for? Did you eventually win the tournament with the gold you bought (essentially paying for the dragon but hopefully way less than the market price)? Yes? Then mark yourself as happy; not screwed. If you bought the gold and still didn't get what you were after, mark yourself a gambler with gambler's remorse.
In any case, your decision does not in any way chisel your future in stone. You may NEVER buy gold again; or it may become a habit. There are worse things to become than a gold buyer. LOL
You don't have to keep "getting screwed" ... unless you decide you like it.

[Mostreal]

Well this was my first DS tournament and my half-raised regular-breed dragons made it to the final round. Unfortunately, I went to work with about 8 hours left in the tournament and FORGOT ALL ABOUT IT. Can you believe that? I logged in and saw the red banner gone from my arena. LOL I never figured I would be THAT kind of loser.
I had been fighting that last dragon on and off since last night. I should have just done an ultimate attack. They have that on DS arena - no? How much does it cost? I figure it can't be too much if you use it just once in a tournament.

The ultimate during a tournament is 30 gold, outside of that it is 12 gold (I think). I generally consider it fair if I use 1 ultimate per tournament as that amounts to less than a dollar for the dragon. It has the same effect of defeating whatever foe you have infront of you - guaranteed win.

Sucks that you went to work and forgot about it. I've done that before, gone to work and forgot about the game.

[FireballFarm]

Each time you play, you toss the coin, there results of the previous battle dont matter.

Exactly. The odds don't "stack."
For example, a level 10 Aether has a 10% chance of beating a level 17 Honor. This is true for every single time they go up against each other. Whether it's the 1st, 7th, or 1094th time doesn't matter- the level 10 Aether always has the same 10% chance of winning any battle against a level 17 Honor.

Another way to look at it is the odds reset after every battle.

[Den8137259]

I think this battle tourney left too quickly, it was replaced by another tourney ★

[KevinW07]

i feel that your analysis is biased ( you are counting loss after the fact that you lose ) .

The probability of "probability of losing X times" is a compound probability (if you win , you break the chain), But you are implying that "the 60% of win" is the complement result of this "losing X time probability" like having:

win 60% + lose 1 time 16% + lose 2 time 8% + lose 3 time 4% + ... = 100%

And this is not true. Each time you play, you toss the coin, there results of the previous battle dont matter.

In a tournament, the focus is to defeat each dragon presented in each round exactly once. So, my probability maths calculates exactly that and it is not "biased".

[SoJam]

Well this was my first DS tournament and my half-raised regular-breed dragons made it to the final round. (Really, I have only a couple super-rares and only 3 dragons at level 10 - two of whom are Fire and Forest; no dragons above level 10 and no ultra-rares; deadly army it is NOT.)
Unfortunately, I went to work with about 8 hours left in the tournament and FORGOT ALL ABOUT IT. Can you believe that? I logged in on my lunch hour and saw the red banner gone from my arena. LOL I never figured I would be THAT kind of loser.
I had been fighting that last dragon on and off since last night. I should have just done an ultimate attack. They have that on DS arena - no? How much does it cost? I figure it can't be too much if you use it just once in a tournament.

So how weird and embarrassing is this? I just won Ember Ruby and was gloating over the egg in storage when I spotted another dragon in the row below it. Tribal.
TRIBAL! The champion prize dragon I thought had gotten away. How sleep deprived must I have been Friday morning to have won that final round at last, yet never realized it.I
Now I'm taking screen shots to prove I'm not imagining this; because I'm extremely exhausted and delirious right now too. I might be seeing dragons. Or unicorns.