danni7788
08-02-13, 09:03 AM
I thought about posting this under the "breeding experiments" thread, but that seems to be more like "what outcome can I get from this dragon and this one?" And "I got a 700 hour breed time, what did it get?" And I wanted this thread to be more experimental. I thought it would be fun to see if we could figure out the probabilities of getting common/rare/super rare/ultra rare dragons. Although it won't really accomplish anything, it would be cool to know. We could run "experiments" with certain dragons and if we get large enough sample sizes, it might be pretty accurate. Here are the things I was thinking we could test and how we could go about it:
-What is the probability of getting a common, rare, super rare, and ultra rare? We could test this using a combo that provides all outcomes (with short fail times hopefully) for example crusader/forest. With enough logs, we could calculate numbers that might be pretty close to the true numbers.
-How do the probabilities change when not all 4 options are in the mix? For example, you can't get an ultra rare with fire/forest. Then what? Same with diamond/fire, you can't get rare or super rare. Lets figure out what the new probabilities would be!
-What does boosted breed actually do? I'm not sure how many people would want to blow gold on this, but it would be interesting to see how it changes things.
-I think I read this somewhere before, but testing the theory that certain people have better luck with certain colors than other people. Are we "color heavy"- do we have better probabilities of breeding certain colors? I think probably not, but it's possible.
-Give more ideas for us to test!
Would anyone be interested in doing this? I know there are so many new dragons out, and it might seem like a waste of time to do this when you could be going for new dragons, but maybe we could find a way to do both at the same time. To test each if these, we could come up with combos that would help people get the dragons they want but at the same time provide data for this experiment. We could have multiple tests running at once and people could sign up for certain color combinations. Also let me know if this has been done before. I'm relatively new to the forums and might have missed something.
If you let me know what dragons you are going for, I would be happy to figure out ideal breeding pairs to have as many people participate that would like to. Thanks! :)
-What is the probability of getting a common, rare, super rare, and ultra rare? We could test this using a combo that provides all outcomes (with short fail times hopefully) for example crusader/forest. With enough logs, we could calculate numbers that might be pretty close to the true numbers.
-How do the probabilities change when not all 4 options are in the mix? For example, you can't get an ultra rare with fire/forest. Then what? Same with diamond/fire, you can't get rare or super rare. Lets figure out what the new probabilities would be!
-What does boosted breed actually do? I'm not sure how many people would want to blow gold on this, but it would be interesting to see how it changes things.
-I think I read this somewhere before, but testing the theory that certain people have better luck with certain colors than other people. Are we "color heavy"- do we have better probabilities of breeding certain colors? I think probably not, but it's possible.
-Give more ideas for us to test!
Would anyone be interested in doing this? I know there are so many new dragons out, and it might seem like a waste of time to do this when you could be going for new dragons, but maybe we could find a way to do both at the same time. To test each if these, we could come up with combos that would help people get the dragons they want but at the same time provide data for this experiment. We could have multiple tests running at once and people could sign up for certain color combinations. Also let me know if this has been done before. I'm relatively new to the forums and might have missed something.
If you let me know what dragons you are going for, I would be happy to figure out ideal breeding pairs to have as many people participate that would like to. Thanks! :)