How rare is rare?

[GavGav2]

Has Team Lava ever declared the exact odds of getting rare, super rare or ultra rare dragons? If your current breeding pool produces only one of each type (common, rare, sr, ur) then what is the percentage assigned to each type? For example if you breed 100 times and get 70 common, 20 rare, 9 super rare and 1 ultra rare then you have a 70% chance at common, 20% at rare, 9% at super rare and 1% at ultra rare. If a different pool produced (hypothetically) 7 common types, 10 rare types, 9 super rare types and 2 ultra rare types your odds would be 10% chance for each common, 2% chance for each rare, 1% chance for each super rare and 0.5% for each ultra rare.

I would like to know because I have noticed very unusual results breeding a four color combo of light, fire, water and magic. Doing this several (possibly over 100) times I have received numerous commons, four magic dragons, five super dragons and ZERO wizard, titan, athletic, ice cream, laserlight, and hypnotic dragons. If each rare dragon has an equal chance of being bred using that combo then what are the odds that I would get 5 super dragons and 4 magic dragons before getting at least one other type of rare dragon? Something is wrong with these results so I suspect that not all rare or super rare dragons are equal in terms of their odds of being bred. Even in the case of Ultra Rare, I have seen and read that many many more people get diamond before they get infinity(if at all). I have at least one type of rare and super rare dragon in each bloodline except the water/magic - fire/magic - light/water and light/magic bloodlines and this is the reason I breed things like Luck/Athletic - Love/Coral etc etc but landing so many super dragons and magics before even one of the other types is extremely odd.

[GavGav2]

I guess a good way to describe what has happened is in terms of rare dragons I have 8 possible results(I am on Kindle so no pink). I got 1 result four times and another five times without getting any of the other six results. I have an 8 sided die and I rolled the die 9 times and landed on number 1 four times and number 2 five times. The odds of rolling an 8 sided die nine times and only landing on numbers 1 or 2 without rolling a 3-8 are very to the power of very high :)

[DragonHeart0]

This is a question I have been pondering also. I have be*** to wonder if the dragon combo is a factor - in other words, a colour and/or combo might have different odds dependant upon the dragons used to breed it. There could be so many if-then type statements in the programming that we likely need a statistician to tell us what is significant and lead us in any definitive direction. And there are so many possible factors - for instance I have heard people wonder if level is a factor and TL has said no. But what about other factors like - time of day? Using gold to speed up? (meaning that the program treats you differently if you've done that recently) What you bred last and/or before last? How many dragons you've evolved? Whether you work on or ignore the goals? Etc. etc. etc. :p :confused:

[GavGav2]

I wish Team Lava would just tell us what the odds are. I cant imagine why they would not release this information

[grondai]

I wish Team Lava would just tell us what the odds are. I cant imagine why they would not release this information

Odds just discourage people from trying. If diamond dragon is 1% chance then why would someone spend gold trying to breed it?

[GavGav2]

Odds just discourage people from trying. If diamond dragon is 1% chance then why would someone spend gold trying to breed it?

No it does not. In fact someone might give up after trying 50 times but if they know they need to try at least 100 times to have a good chance to get one they would keep going.

[kwobb_xx]

Well team lava says the results of any breeding are completely random, and unless youre a statistics major, finding out the exact percentage of odds is incredibly difficult.
i mean, how many times has a super rare dragon been released, and some people get it instantly while others struggle? If the percent chance of getting a specific dragon were set in stone, then after a certain amount of breedings, everyone would get the dragon.
the best way to increase the odds of getting a certain dragon is to keep it as simple as possible and just keep breeding until you get it. Like if you want a dream dragon, just put a water and a light dragon into the breeding den, then the only dragons you're gonna get are blue/white hybrids increasing your chances of getting the dragon from the get-go.
I've never understood why people will put dragons like landworms with water hoping to get a green/blue hybrid, when doing that makes it just as hard by having the 3rd element present... but that's just me. That's how I've managed to get all the rare/super rare dragons I have, by keeping it simple.

[GavGav2]

If the percent chance of getting a specific dragon were set in stone, then after a certain amount of breedings, everyone would get the dragon.


Thats not how it works. As I stated above, even if something has a 1% chance of appearing that does not mean that you are going to get at least 1 in 100 attempts. You could breed 1000 times and not get something that has a 1% chance of occurring but your odds of that would be 0.1%( i think ).

[grondai]

The only thing I know is I never buy scratch offs because they list the odds on the back. A 5$ scratch off only has a 1/10 chance of you even getting your 5$ back. Think about how discouraging it would be for someone to spend 5$ on a 1% chance for a virtual dragon

[riisak]

Well, I've noticed that regardless of the combos you use, rarity is less of a factor compared to the order of your gems.

For instance, when I breed island + firestorm I kept getting fireworks dragons. When I breed firestorm + island I kept getting more firestorm dragons.

Other people have reported similar things. Different dragon combos, and the order you place them in, is most likely to bring up a certain result over and over again, so if you are breeding the colors in the wrong order I think you literally have a 0% chance of getting certain dragons, even though that shouldn't be the case...

[kwobb_xx]

So the more you breed, the lower your chances are? If its 1% then after 1000 breeding attempts you should have 10 of that dragon not the other way around.

[kwobb_xx]

So the more you breed, the lower your chances are? If its 1% then after 1000 breeding attempts you should have 10 of that dragon not the other way around.

let me clarify a little further b/c that's confusing. If the odd of getting a dragon is 1% that's 1/100 because percentages are out of 100. So 10/1000 is equal to 1/100

[GavGav2]

let me clarify a little further b/c that's confusing. If the odd of getting a dragon is 1% that's 1/100 because percentages are out of 100. So 10/1000 is equal to 1/100

I said the odds of not getting a 1% dragon in 1000 attempts is 0.1%. You misunderstood me :)

[GavGav2]

But I think I am a bit wrong on that. Technically if you have a 1% chance of getting a dragon and you do 100 attempts you are very likely to get at least 1. If you do 1000 attempts and do not get at least one I would think the odds are quite high against that happening.

[kwobb_xx]

I said the odds of not getting a 1% dragon in 1000 attempts is 0.1%. You misunderstood me :)

i agree that you can breed two dragons 100 times and not get what you want, it's a lot like flipping a coin; you have a 50/50 chance of landing on heads/tails but i guarantee you won't land on heads 50% of the time but that's exactly why we'll never get exact rarity percentages, if you know what i'm saying.

[GavGav2]

Everyone understands what we are talking about. The point is WHY won't Team Lava at least tell us that in the case of breeding where the only four results would be common, rare, super rare and ultra rare what are the odds for each? Unless there is some secret method like one of the above posters mentioned where certain combo's of two colors actually have a better results vs other same color combo's :)

[grondai]

The only thing I know is I never buy scratch offs because they list the odds on the back. A 5$ scratch off only has a 1/10 chance of you even getting your 5$ back. Think about how discouraging it would be for someone to spend 5$ on a 1% chance for a virtual dragon

This is why..... They legally have to put odds on the back of scratch offs. If they didnt have to they wouldn't because it discourages people. Team lava doesn't have to so they never will

[GavGav2]

Well, I've noticed that regardless of the combos you use, rarity is less of a factor compared to the order of your gems.

For instance, when I breed island + firestorm I kept getting fireworks dragons. When I breed firestorm + island I kept getting more firestorm dragons.

Other people have reported similar things. Different dragon combos, and the order you place them in, is most likely to bring up a certain result over and over again, so if you are breeding the colors in the wrong order I think you literally have a 0% chance of getting certain dragons, even though that shouldn't be the case...


This is why..... They legally have to put odds on the back of scratch offs. If they didnt have to they wouldn't because it discourages people. Team lava doesn't have to so they never will

Ok, I get what your saying grondai and maybe TL thinks it would be discouraging to do so but if what riisak is saying is true what harm would it do to at least confirm or deny that certain combo's of fire/air etc do indeed provide better odds of getting scorpion/honeybee for example?

[codenamezebra]

This is a good question... I bred fire/athletic in that order 2 days ago at around 1pm mst I got left heart then right heart first try then sped those up and did light/fairy or it may have been light/fruitful... (id have to go back and look at ceasar thread to be exact) but wham! Ceasar the sped up ceasar an bred light/fire and got virtue......so i got 4 dragons I didnt have all right in a row within 30 minutes of eachother....since then I have been breeding right and left over and over and I have gotten I dont know how many left hearts...2 or three right hearts...several athletics and now magics....when I breed right on right and left on left I get many left hearts and athletic...I switched right to left side and left to right side and got magics and right hearts and more left hearts but no athletics yet and no passion..... tried FOREVER to get planet..diamond...mistmoth never got them..still dont have them!! serpent and scorpion took forrrrever but I did get them finally my sister has tons of scorpions and serpents using same combos I tried could never get them....I have not even tried for infinity really just diamond which is really the same but I tried for a month and nothing.