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View Full Version : The Failure/Success Ratio Breeding Thread... monster story edition :)



killbethy
08-17-12, 08:36 PM
Since multiple hybrids are out for the same elements now (or also for those that like to keep track of the average outcome when breeding with more than 2 colors/elements)... I present the Failure/Success Ratio Thread, Monster Story edition (AKA mathematics, statistics and data analysis enthusiasts unite!). If anyone else is interested in recording their results, I'll create a Google Doc for it too.

Note: Breeding notation used below is as follows: Color (Monster Type) Level [Left Side] x Color (Monster Type) Level [Right Side]

Average with current data notation used below is as follow: .xxx common / .xxx rare (ex. .75/.25... [results are rounded to three digits], so 75% average for common version / 25% average for rare) Feel free to notate it differently, or skip the averaging completely if you like... I'll compile it)

So far for me....

The Birdball attempts...
Parents used in both attempts: Blue (Blue blob) lvl 6 x Yellow (Dream Bird) lvl 6
1. Failure - Wavewing
2. Success - Birdball

Average with current data: .5/.5 (50% common / 50% rare)

The Furball attemps
*Note: GLITCHED
Parents used in all attempts: Blue (Blue Blob) lbl 6 x Red (Firefox) lvl 7
1. Failure - Sea Buffalo
2. Failure - Sea Buffalo
3. Failure - Birdball (thought: oops, clicked wrong)
4. Failure - Sea buffalo
5. Failure - Birdball (thought: WTF? i know it wasn't wrong that time)
6. Failure - Sea buffalo
7. Failure - Sea buffalo
8. Failure - Birdball (though: as a great man once said... screw this, I'm going home :P in other words, it's glitched... wait on it)

Average with current data: .625/.000 BUT /.375 for the wrong rare :) OR 62.5% common 0% rare 37.5% incorrect rare

Inferno
Parents used in all attempts: Green (Treerex) lvl 6 x Red (Firefox) lvl 7
1. Failure - Leaflion
2. Success - Inferno

Average with current data: .5/.5 OR 50% common / 50% rare

King Clam
Parents used in all attempts: Blue (Blue blob) lvl 6 x White (Shell Lizard) lvl 6
1 - 21. All Failures - Tonguetoad
22. Success - King Clam

Average with current data: .955 /.045 OR 95.5% common / 4.5% rare

That's it for now for me... all of the initial release monsters were created on 1st attempt (single color and common dual color hybrids). No attempts made yet in breeding parents with more than just a single 2-color hybrid as a result (ie. breeding a hybrid parent with another hybrid or single color parent with atleast one color different from the first hybrid parent). On to the Diamond Pegasus for me... :cool: hopefully that will turn out a bit more interesting.

Let me know if anyone is interested in adding data, contributing to it as a gooogle doc, or just leeching free information gained from the sweat and blood of your comrades and neighbors (ie. viewing priveleges to the google doc)

And may the odds be ever in your favor.

killbethy
08-18-12, 01:24 AM
The journey to breeding a Diamond Pegasus: the raw and analyzed data

Sensationalized advertisement to continue reading: blood! sweat! tears! swearing! iPhone meets wall and considerable velocity! plotting the downfall of teamlava! and finally... elation! I promise a happy ending :D

The diamond pegasus is happily breeding as of 3:16AM. I didn't upload pictures, but for anyone that wants concrete proof that I do have a Diamond Pegasus breeding, visit my park (Beth's Blobs, Storm8ID: ****bethy) within 44 hours of August 18th 3:16AM EST before it hits the nest. ^_^

Now on to the data...




---------------------------------------

Quick Content Reference (for those that want to skip sections or find things easily)
Part 1: Monster Code List
Part 2: Attempt Sequence
-Begin Final Breakdown -
Part 3: Total failure breeding attempts for each monster
Part 4: Total failure rate (%) and Individual monster failure rate (%)
Part 5: Success Rate



PART 1


I really don't want to type the names of the monsters out a gajillion times, so here is a code list for the names.


Ecogoo - 1
Sea Buffalo - 2
Birdball - 3
Wavewing - 4
Palmwing - 5
Shell Lizard - 6
Leaf Lion - 7
Griffin - 8
Furball - 9


PART 2

Left Side: Yellow-Blue (Wavewing) lvl 7 x Red-Green (Leaf Lion) lvl 6 :Right Side... was used for all breeding attempts and were completed consecutively until success was reached.

Attempt Sequence:1 2 3 4 5 1 4 3 6 7 - 1 1 3 6 2 8 7 5 1 2 - 1 4 4 3 8 9 1 2 3 6 - 4 2 4 1 5 2 5 1 5 1 - 7 1 7 5 4 4 5 5 5 7 - 6 5 4 1 8 8 1 3 8 6 - 6 FINALLY SUCCESS!! (dashes placed between every 10 attempts)


=====FINAL BREAKDOWN=====

Total consecutive attempts: 62
Total Failures bred: 61


PART 3

Failures broken down into individual/specific monsters.....

Total Ecogoo (1) bred: 13
Total Sea Buffalo (2) bred: 6
Total Birdball (3) bred: 6
Total Wavewing (4) bred: 9
Total Palmwing (5) bred: 10
Total Shell Lizard (6) bred: 6
Total Leaf Lion (7) bred: 5
Total Griffin (8) bred: 5
Total Furball (9) bred: 1


PART 4

FAILURE RATE : 61/62 = 98.39% *cry*

Percentage of Failed Attempts that resulted in....

Ecogoo: 13/61 = 21.31%
Sea Buffalo: 6/61 = 9.84%
Birdball: 6/61 = 9.84%
Wavewing: 9/61 = 14.75%
Palmwing: 10/61 = 16.39%
Shell Lizard: 6/61 = 9.84%
Leaf Lion: 5/61 = 8.2%
Griffin: 5/61 = 8.2%
Furball: 1/61 = 1.64%


PART 5


Total Successes (Diamond Pegasus): 1

SUCCESS RATE : 1/62 = 1.61%

I wish everyone better luck than I had. Hopefully someone finds this useful, entertaining, informative or just hilariously overdone :o

anketam
08-18-12, 05:23 AM
I am feeling depressed now... I have only done 30 attempts so I probably would have another 30 more to go.
*sobs quietly in a corner*

chewytwix
08-18-12, 11:11 AM
Assuming monster story is like a random draw with replacement, it may take you more (or less) than 60 attempts to get the diamond. The probability of drawing a diamond stays the same regardless of how many attempts you make because I doubt TL counts the number of times you've attempted and failed. Your chances does not increase in future attempts. So say your chance is 5% of drawing pegasus. It will be a 5% chance every time you try.