thefatbear
06-10-12, 04:45 PM
TL;DR: If you're picking a box, choose the one you like the 3rd place items from, as they're the ones you're most likely to see.
Let's start with what we already know about the boxes:
When you open a box, you can receive a price a 4 different levels: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.
You receive only one item from one prize level, per box.
Each prize level has a certain number of items attached to it. For instance, there's only one item at the 1st prize level. If you win 1st place, you will definitely receive the 1st place item. 4th prize, on the other hand, has 4 items attached, meaning winning 4th prize could result in any of 4 items in the box.
Each prize level also has a probability attached to it (below, from the Bakery Master Box List (http://forums.teamlava.com/showthread.php?26550-Bakery-Master-Box-List)).
Common (4th Prize, 54%)
Uncommon (3rd Prize, 35%)
Rare (2nd Prize, 10%)
Exceptional (1st Prize, 1%)
You'd think, based on those probabilities, that you'd be most likely to receive a 4th place item. If you really like one of the 4th place items from a box, you might be more likely to choose it that box in hopes of getting it. However, those probabilities are affected by the number of items on each level (also from the Bakery Mastery Box List (http://forums.teamlava.com/showthread.php?26550-Bakery-Master-Box-List)).
4th Prize has 4 items attached.
3rd Prize has 2 items attached.
2nd Prize has 2 items attached.
1st Prize has 1 item attached.
Using this information, we can determine how likely you are not just to receive a certain level of prize, but any particular prize from within a box.
1st Prize
This prize level is the easiest: it has 1 item attached and a 1% probability of appearing. That means if you're after the 1st prize from a box, each one you open has a 1% chance of containing it.
2nd Prize
This prize level is easy as well: 2 items attached to it and a 10% chance of receiving it. That means if you're after a 2nd prize item, each box you open has a 5% chance of containing that particular item.
3rd Prize
This prize level is easy math too: 2 items attached to it and a 35% chance of appearing. If you're after a particular 3rd place item, each box has a 17.5% chance that it'll be inside. That's a *huge* jump from the 2nd prize items.
4th Prize
This prize level is where things get surprising: 4 items attached and a 54% probability. That 54% might seem high, but once you split it between the 4 possible items, it leaves you with only a 13.5% chance of containing the 4th prize item you want.
Result
It's counter intuitive, but if you look at the items on an individual bases, each 3rd place item has a higher probability of being in a box than any other item. If you're using your gems to fish for a particular item, don't be surprised that the 4th place items are harder to get ahold of than you think they should be. Although 4th prize is the most likely level, there are so many items in that level that each item is actually rarer than the 3rd place items.
Let's start with what we already know about the boxes:
When you open a box, you can receive a price a 4 different levels: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th.
You receive only one item from one prize level, per box.
Each prize level has a certain number of items attached to it. For instance, there's only one item at the 1st prize level. If you win 1st place, you will definitely receive the 1st place item. 4th prize, on the other hand, has 4 items attached, meaning winning 4th prize could result in any of 4 items in the box.
Each prize level also has a probability attached to it (below, from the Bakery Master Box List (http://forums.teamlava.com/showthread.php?26550-Bakery-Master-Box-List)).
Common (4th Prize, 54%)
Uncommon (3rd Prize, 35%)
Rare (2nd Prize, 10%)
Exceptional (1st Prize, 1%)
You'd think, based on those probabilities, that you'd be most likely to receive a 4th place item. If you really like one of the 4th place items from a box, you might be more likely to choose it that box in hopes of getting it. However, those probabilities are affected by the number of items on each level (also from the Bakery Mastery Box List (http://forums.teamlava.com/showthread.php?26550-Bakery-Master-Box-List)).
4th Prize has 4 items attached.
3rd Prize has 2 items attached.
2nd Prize has 2 items attached.
1st Prize has 1 item attached.
Using this information, we can determine how likely you are not just to receive a certain level of prize, but any particular prize from within a box.
1st Prize
This prize level is the easiest: it has 1 item attached and a 1% probability of appearing. That means if you're after the 1st prize from a box, each one you open has a 1% chance of containing it.
2nd Prize
This prize level is easy as well: 2 items attached to it and a 10% chance of receiving it. That means if you're after a 2nd prize item, each box you open has a 5% chance of containing that particular item.
3rd Prize
This prize level is easy math too: 2 items attached to it and a 35% chance of appearing. If you're after a particular 3rd place item, each box has a 17.5% chance that it'll be inside. That's a *huge* jump from the 2nd prize items.
4th Prize
This prize level is where things get surprising: 4 items attached and a 54% probability. That 54% might seem high, but once you split it between the 4 possible items, it leaves you with only a 13.5% chance of containing the 4th prize item you want.
Result
It's counter intuitive, but if you look at the items on an individual bases, each 3rd place item has a higher probability of being in a box than any other item. If you're using your gems to fish for a particular item, don't be surprised that the 4th place items are harder to get ahold of than you think they should be. Although 4th prize is the most likely level, there are so many items in that level that each item is actually rarer than the 3rd place items.