Please post your experiences with tourney loss streaks and breeding for Dragon Tales

[chuckyt888]

On my account I failed breeding a Coral dragon for Dragon Tales. Tried from the beginning of Dragon Tales repeatedly and had no choice but to skip it or not be able to complete Dragon Tales. This is a common occurrence for friends and family and spans multiple accounts and multiple Dragon Tales. I don't need to tell anyone how ridiculous this is when outside of Dragon Tales, commons would be the breeding result 90% of the time.

I am currently on a double digit loss streak for the Inquisitor in the arena tournament and have been on it for a full day now. This is a common occurrence for friends and family and spans multiple accounts and multiple tournaments. It is not uncommon for 25% win chance dragons to rack up 20+ loss streaks against level 20 champion dragons (these 25% chance dragons are the best you can do against lvl 20 champs). I've had 60-80% win chance dragons rack up double digit loss streaks.

There is a problem here and the developers need to know about it (if this is unintended). The odds of these things happening consistently really get out of hand when you start doing the math. The best thing we can do is post these experiences in a thread.

[chuckyt888]

15 losses now on Inquisitor using 25% win chance dragons on all attempts but one.

[Burrymillz]

I really don't think that win % matter I think you just have to keep attempting I've lost to 1 dragon many times only to end up beating it with a dragon that had lost to it before I spent over a day and a half on the same dragon maybe 20 25 losses just have to keep trying

[chuckyt888]

Against level 20 champions, level 15 Diamond, Infinity, Passion, Pyramid and Soccer all have 25% chance to win. The advantages certain types have over other types seems to hold true outside of tournaments/Dragon Tales but definitely not during them... especially on the "hard" dragons everyone will have trouble with during these events. I agree with you that something is 100% off during events when it comes to arena and breeding. They have claimed that the percentages are the same and are not manipulated during events. Either there is a bug/issue they aren't aware of in code or somebody is being misinformed. The question is which one is it... if there is no difference in these percentages during and outside of events things are 100% not working as intended.

17 losses and counting.

[belarica]

I really don't think that win % matter I think you just have to keep attempting I've lost to 1 dragon many times only to end up beating it with a dragon that had lost to it before I spent over a day and a half on the same dragon maybe 20 25 losses just have to keep trying

We also have to remember that a 25% chance to win is a 75% chance to lose. The chance to lose is 75% every single attempt, the amount of losses does not increase the chance to win.

[chuckyt888]

The odds of losing streaks like this consistently happening are astronomical. I can buy an outlier here or there but it's constant.

You're 100% correct the odds of losing a single attempt is 75%.... and the odds of winning are 25%... and the numbers don't play out over time.

It's been a while since I've dealt with statistics/probability but the chance of losing 17 times in a row on a 25% win chance is about 0 .75% I think. I've had 20+ losses in the same situation several other times.

Maybe I should play the lottery.

We also have to remember that a 25% chance to win is a 75% chance to lose. The chance to lose is 75% every single attempt, the amount of losses does not increase the chance to win.

[JustKay]

i don't normally have trouble with Tales or Tourneys, so I will share one observation that I have made so that others may benefit. The difficulty level does not seem to stay the same during the entire period of a special event. I first noticed this when I was on holiday and did a tourney in one morning because I knew I wouldn't have internet connectivity for the rest of the week. Yes, I acknowledge that I did spend gold speeding up the next rounds which may affect the luck variable, however the difficulty level was significantly less frustrating the more time I had left on the event. This makes sense since the less time = more sense of urgency = more likely to spend gold.

In short, the difficulty level of a tourney or goal is less at the start of the event and highest near the end. This also irons out a lot of the ****er babies complaints during the early days of a tourney when baby opponents regularly best epic dragons (no algorithm is perfect). The early baby rounds go down easy since the difficulty level is also lower. Applying this understanding, I always charge through tourneys and try to finish them in the first two or three days. I'll clock in on the hour every hour up til late at night and will usually have at least 3 days left on the clock when I am done. At the very least I would have cleared the 3 tough milestone dragons, and can have a few days for the home run. Around the time that I finish, I'll start seeing more and more difficulty complaints on the forums as the other players hit the higher difficulty setting.

The same can be said about Breeding goals for Tales. I will read up on the goals as early as possible and try to breed the required dragons and have them sitting on my nest ready to go for when the time comes. I do have the advantage of four nests but before I did, I would put a stop to breeding if I had the right hours in the den. If the dragon goes on sale in the market that's a clear sign the difficulty level will have been tweaked. Even on Leaderboard events, I've noticed that the spin wheel is less generous later in the game.

Make no mistake that Dragon Story is a money making game and it needs to do this to keep those servers running. Don't take it personally, and just figure out & learn the system so you play a better game than others. Ultimately, you are not playing against S8, you are playing against other players for the right to not have to spend gold. Someone has to foot the bill.

[DeeDe99]

I have different theories about the game than JustKay however I agree with her 100% when she says "just figure out and learn the system so you play a better game". The game doesn't work how players might want it to work, so players have to adjust game tactics accordingly.

I don't believe anything is changed during events as my game experience doesn't indicate any difference between event and non-event activities.

Don't underestimate the psychological factors at play here - generally humans are very susceptible to time pressures which affect actions and decision making. There are a lot of psychological drivers in this game!

[9krm]

I am on lvl 152 or something and have been playing since March 2015 (I think). Until this past January, I won every tournament that came along. After that, I was only able to win the Fool 3 day tournament. It is always the same: I get stuck on a champ for 2-3 days and then either give up or run out of time (I refuse to use the ultimate).

I have a lvl 15 diamond, a lvl 15 quetzal, and 4 or 5 champs, including a lvl 15 Dueler. Nothing works. I really wanted to win the last tournament because I liked the prize, but wasn't able to get through. I don't keep stats or anything but it is frustrating.
ETA: I almost never lose battles when it isn't a tournament.

[chuckyt888]

There's not much you can do other than spend gold to skip the breeding when you try from the beginning of Dragon Tales to breed a common dragon and are not able to. There is nothing to adjust. They are saying it's not manipulated in any way so there is obviously something wrong for certain player accounts and it needs fixed. There is nothing psychological about it. The same goes for the tournament. It's numbers and they don't add up over a large sample size. I don't doubt that it's not the same for players of a certain profile.

A little transparency from the developer would go a long way. If something is changed in code that affects gameplay it should be communicated in patch notes like any other game. If there are certain triggers based upon player profile (or whatever it is) that could up difficulty levels fine.... say that.